Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 20.361391 22.092851 23.961227 26.137210 28.614545 31.362379 34.661997
2025-08-31 17.446355 19.782285 22.475278 25.848024 30.015016 35.071580 41.795514
2025-09-07 15.436160 18.092520 21.314296 25.590379 31.246641 38.673750 49.534720
2025-09-14 14.005869 16.853520 20.451521 25.463423 32.495923 42.412062 58.290466
2025-09-21 12.834766 15.771228 19.605947 25.165875 33.371147 45.697774 67.187379
2025-09-28 12.308301 15.448258 19.689653 26.103156 36.098993 52.223982 83.319149
2025-10-05 11.526524 14.691329 19.073590 25.912238 37.028606 56.011927 95.871670
2025-10-12 10.891274 14.073618 18.579625 25.817447 38.056239 60.141132 110.708914
2025-10-19 10.450015 13.688030 18.376011 26.129948 39.789368 65.937876 131.964190
2025-10-26 9.938969 13.158683 17.903234 25.938280 40.578249 70.045860 151.266649
2025-11-02 9.467380 12.652700 17.420426 25.667325 41.162495 73.853210 172.079034
2025-11-09 9.112432 12.296196 17.138904 25.702518 42.327223 79.249850 201.784062
2025-11-16 8.721425 11.868714 16.724587 25.482979 42.999819 83.822691 233.329961
2025-11-23 8.367091 11.477839 16.342538 25.284759 43.695943 88.721781 271.786377
2025-11-30 8.039716 11.110319 15.972684 25.070772 44.327635 93.693793 317.413332
2025-12-07 7.758695 10.800066 15.676131 24.963317 45.179802 99.617242 378.000523
2025-12-14 7.469491 10.461244 15.308250 24.681164 45.586503 104.394491 441.737491
2025-12-21 7.400309 10.472206 15.538603 25.595217 49.004052 120.299771 635.048915
2025-12-28 7.160905 10.191803 15.240562 25.411132 49.673970 127.153877 778.888311
2026-01-04 6.952027 9.951718 14.998823 25.319644 50.572026 135.357412 987.023533
2026-01-11 6.814243 9.823121 14.948052 25.623644 52.585949 149.180237 1406.783591
2026-01-18 6.616171 9.583726 14.681223 25.437498 53.220567 157.585928 1844.451928
2026-01-25 6.419645 9.338744 14.390710 25.174192 53.597701 165.156379 2425.799643